8 billion by 2020, a dominant driver of commodities
When Neil Armstrong walked on the moon in 1969, he looked down at a world with just 3 billion inhabitants. Fast forward five decades to 2020, and the world’s population would have grown to 8 billion – certainly one giant leap for mankind. At the current growth rate, 9 billion people could be walking the Earth by 2030.
The world’s population could reach 7.2 billion by the end of this year and 8 billion by 2020, with the largest increase to come from Africa, such that the continent could overtake both India and China in the next 10 years. We estimate Africa’s population to reach 1.4 billion by 2020 from 1.1 billion now. Indeed, as highlighted in our Super-Cycle report, Africa’s growing population could contribute to what we had called “an arc of growth” stretching from China through India and into Africa. The population on the African continent is growing five times faster than China, and it is the youngest in the world. Moreover, it is relatively free of consumer debt and boasts a swelling middle class.
Soft commodities are likely to be beneficiaries in this new age, with palm oil, corn, soya and sugar to rise on the cusp of major new bull markets. To feed the large population, we need to find new agricultural land that is larger than the farms in India or Russia. The emergence of producer power comes at a time when China seems to be more reliant on food imports. We could be one bad season away from another spike in food prices.
Copper and gold could be the big winners in the metals arena. Supply constraints in these commodities are unlikely to ease as the world’s population becomes increasingly hungry for these two metals.
Source:http://research.standardchartered.com
When Neil Armstrong walked on the moon in 1969, he looked down at a world with just 3 billion inhabitants. Fast forward five decades to 2020, and the world’s population would have grown to 8 billion – certainly one giant leap for mankind. At the current growth rate, 9 billion people could be walking the Earth by 2030.
The world’s population could reach 7.2 billion by the end of this year and 8 billion by 2020, with the largest increase to come from Africa, such that the continent could overtake both India and China in the next 10 years. We estimate Africa’s population to reach 1.4 billion by 2020 from 1.1 billion now. Indeed, as highlighted in our Super-Cycle report, Africa’s growing population could contribute to what we had called “an arc of growth” stretching from China through India and into Africa. The population on the African continent is growing five times faster than China, and it is the youngest in the world. Moreover, it is relatively free of consumer debt and boasts a swelling middle class.
Soft commodities are likely to be beneficiaries in this new age, with palm oil, corn, soya and sugar to rise on the cusp of major new bull markets. To feed the large population, we need to find new agricultural land that is larger than the farms in India or Russia. The emergence of producer power comes at a time when China seems to be more reliant on food imports. We could be one bad season away from another spike in food prices.
Copper and gold could be the big winners in the metals arena. Supply constraints in these commodities are unlikely to ease as the world’s population becomes increasingly hungry for these two metals.
Source:http://research.standardchartered.com
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