Whether you believe Paul
Keating's statement "When you change the government, you change the
country" or perhaps take the view that both major parties have morphed
toward populist, poll driven policies, the election of the Coalition should (if
we believe its rhetoric) promise a more stable and business friendly
environment.
The signs are promising. This could be the era of "lucky Tony" as the global economy looks set to strengthen, with Europe out of a recession after six quarters of negative growth, the US trundling along well, with more talk of tapering, and the great Abenomics experiment in Japan driving some growth and weakening the yen. Comments from China’s Premier Li's in July, and more recent comments from senior bureaucrats, make it clear that 7% growth is the bottom line for China and let’s face it they do have a great track record of driving that command economy to meet their targets, at least in the short term.
So, Tony may have inherited a reasonable environment but the new Senate which takes effect from July 2014 could be a little more problematic with 33 seats (39 needed to vote in new legislation), 25 to Labor and 10 to the Greens (who have tended to vote with Labor). That leaves an eclectic bunch of 8 independents including two Palmer United, a Liberal Democrat (who the cynics say won votes due to their "first box" position on the NSW ballot paper and a name that could be confused with other parties), independent Xenophon, Motoring Enthusiasts and Australian Sports Party. Some see this a disaster leading to a double dissolution. However, perhaps Tony can successfully negotiate with at least six of the eight power brokers just as John Howard did some years ago.
The signs are promising. This could be the era of "lucky Tony" as the global economy looks set to strengthen, with Europe out of a recession after six quarters of negative growth, the US trundling along well, with more talk of tapering, and the great Abenomics experiment in Japan driving some growth and weakening the yen. Comments from China’s Premier Li's in July, and more recent comments from senior bureaucrats, make it clear that 7% growth is the bottom line for China and let’s face it they do have a great track record of driving that command economy to meet their targets, at least in the short term.
So, Tony may have inherited a reasonable environment but the new Senate which takes effect from July 2014 could be a little more problematic with 33 seats (39 needed to vote in new legislation), 25 to Labor and 10 to the Greens (who have tended to vote with Labor). That leaves an eclectic bunch of 8 independents including two Palmer United, a Liberal Democrat (who the cynics say won votes due to their "first box" position on the NSW ballot paper and a name that could be confused with other parties), independent Xenophon, Motoring Enthusiasts and Australian Sports Party. Some see this a disaster leading to a double dissolution. However, perhaps Tony can successfully negotiate with at least six of the eight power brokers just as John Howard did some years ago.
Indices:
The
Australian All Ordinaries Index has moved up increasing by +1.0%
since closing last Friday to 02:20 pm today.
The
rest of the world as measured by the MSCI index increased +2.8%
in A$ from closing last Friday to end of trade Thursday.
Have a great weekend,
The team at IPS
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